Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.9 | 13.3% | 11 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 1.0 | 13.3% | 11 | 0.08% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 2.1 | 34.9% | 29 | 0.14% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 1.0 | 12% | 10 | 0.07% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 0.4 | 4.8% | 4 | 0.04% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.7 | 7.2% | 6 | 0.05% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.6 | 7.2% | 6 | 0.05% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.9 | 7.2% | 6 | 0.06% |
| All ages | 7 | 7.6 | 100% | 83 | 0.08% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | 29927 | 226367 | 705 | 182 | 119 |
| Mar 12 | 29928 | 226572 | 705 | 182 | 105 |
| Mar 13 | 29931 | 226638 | 705 | 182 | 92 |
| Mar 14 | 29944 | 226906 | 706 | 182 | 88 |
| Mar 15 | 29952 | 227270 | 706 | 182 | 88 |
| Mar 16 | 29963 | 227643 | 708 | 182 | 96 |
| Mar 17 | 29970 | 227804 | 708 | 182 | 83 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | 18556 | 150988 | 692 | 178 | 53 |
| Mar 12 | 18558 | 151117 | 692 | 178 | 53 |
| Mar 13 | 18558 | 151162 | 692 | 178 | 51 |
| Mar 14 | 18561 | 151292 | 692 | 178 | 41 |
| Mar 15 | 18564 | 151479 | 692 | 179 | 38 |
| Mar 16 | 18569 | 151703 | 692 | 179 | 41 |
| Mar 17 | 18573 | 151774 | 693 | 179 | 39 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.3 | 7.7% | 3 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.0 | 5.1% | 2 | 0.02% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.4 | 15.4% | 6 | 0.08% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.9 | 17.9% | 7 | 0.08% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.6 | 12.8% | 5 | 0.06% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.3 | 7.7% | 3 | 0.03% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.6 | 20.5% | 8 | 0.1% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.4 | 12.8% | 5 | 0.07% |
| All ages | 4 | 3.4 | 100% | 39 | 0.06% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | 13394 | 88557 | 537 | 140 | 48 |
| Mar 12 | 13396 | 88636 | 537 | 140 | 46 |
| Mar 13 | 13397 | 88689 | 537 | 140 | 42 |
| Mar 14 | 13404 | 88761 | 537 | 140 | 45 |
| Mar 15 | 13410 | 88864 | 537 | 140 | 48 |
| Mar 16 | 13412 | 88928 | 537 | 140 | 49 |
| Mar 17 | 13413 | 88962 | 537 | 140 | 42 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.4% | 1 | 0.02% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.4% | 1 | 0.02% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.3 | 7.1% | 3 | 0.07% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.6 | 14.3% | 6 | 0.11% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.3 | 9.5% | 4 | 0.08% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.6 | 21.4% | 9 | 0.13% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.4 | 11.9% | 5 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.9 | 31% | 13 | 0.21% |
| All ages | 1 | 3.0 | 100% | 42 | 0.09% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | 34415 | 304385 | 1014 | 176 | 242 |
| Mar 12 | 34428 | 304547 | 1015 | 176 | 237 |
| Mar 13 | 34431 | 304705 | 1015 | 176 | 214 |
| Mar 14 | 34449 | 305018 | 1015 | 176 | 209 |
| Mar 15 | 34462 | 305307 | 1016 | 176 | 216 |
| Mar 16 | 34471 | 305558 | 1017 | 176 | 204 |
| Mar 17 | 34484 | 305729 | 1018 | 176 | 183 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 2.0 | 12% | 22 | 0.19% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.0 | 10.4% | 19 | 0.11% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 1.4 | 18% | 33 | 0.16% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 2.7 | 17.5% | 32 | 0.24% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.4 | 10.9% | 20 | 0.15% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.1 | 9.3% | 17 | 0.12% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 1.9 | 13.1% | 24 | 0.17% |
| 70+ | 2 | 0.9 | 8.7% | 16 | 0.12% |
| All ages | 13 | 12.4 | 100% | 183 | 0.15% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | 122877 | 2379941 | 2534 | 497 | 689 |
| Mar 12 | 122920 | 2381055 | 2534 | 497 | 666 |
| Mar 13 | 122927 | 2381898 | 2535 | 497 | 598 |
| Mar 14 | 122994 | 2383646 | 2535 | 497 | 575 |
| Mar 15 | 123088 | 2386643 | 2537 | 497 | 614 |
| Mar 16 | 123173 | 2389097 | 2538 | 497 | 660 |
| Mar 17 | 123244 | 2390474 | 2540 | 497 | 682 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 13 | 10.3 | 15.7% | 107 | 0.18% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 7.1 | 12.8% | 87 | 0.12% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 7.4 | 13.6% | 93 | 0.09% |
| 30-39 | 15 | 11.1 | 18.3% | 125 | 0.16% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 8.9 | 15.1% | 103 | 0.16% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 6.0 | 8.4% | 57 | 0.09% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 4.4 | 6.6% | 45 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 3 | 6.1 | 9.5% | 65 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 71 | 61.4 | 100% | 682 | 0.12% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | 1577972 | 13838487 | 62912 | 13952 | 4723 |
| Mar 12 | 1578244 | 13849321 | 62922 | 13954 | 4402 |
| Mar 13 | 1578303 | 13855866 | 62926 | 13955 | 3882 |
| Mar 14 | 1578825 | 13867932 | 62947 | 13958 | 3844 |
| Mar 15 | 1579346 | 13886321 | 62960 | 13959 | 4049 |
| Mar 16 | 1579888 | 13901585 | 62982 | 13959 | 4357 |
| Mar 17 | 1580313 | 13909823 | 62997 | 13960 | 4347 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 44 | 44.1 | 11.2% | 486 | 0.08% |
| 10-19 | 47 | 42.9 | 11.5% | 498 | 0.07% |
| 20-29 | 62 | 51.6 | 13.3% | 580 | 0.08% |
| 30-39 | 71 | 64.1 | 16.4% | 711 | 0.09% |
| 40-49 | 45 | 41.3 | 11.7% | 510 | 0.07% |
| 50-59 | 53 | 49.4 | 11.9% | 519 | 0.06% |
| 60-69 | 49 | 44.3 | 10.8% | 470 | 0.06% |
| 70+ | 52 | 54.1 | 12.9% | 559 | 0.09% |
| All ages | 425 | 392.6 | 100% | 4347 | 0.07% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-04-08 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 14019"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges